Abstract: For evaluating the performance of RFID anti-collision protocol accurately and improving the anti-collision capability of different anti-collision algorithms of modern logistic RFID system, various probabilistic models of collision mechanisms were established. Furthermore, a set of evaluation parameters was given to detect the performance of anti-collision algorithms. In order to verify the reliability of the evaluation parameters involved in two probabilistic models in RFID collision, the computer simulation experiments were conducted to explore the reliability of key parameters in the probabilistic models. According to the probabilistic modeling and stochastic analysis of RFID collision, a new evaluation tool for anti-collision detection of modern logistic RFID system was suggested.